Assessing possible impacts of an EU-importban for GMO-plants from third countries (BVL_importban)
Bundesamt für Verbraucherschutz und Lebensmittelsicherheit (BVL)
September 2019 - completion of tasks
The changing conditions of how genome-edited plants are treated outside the EU poses new question to international trade, especially the possible consequences of a general import ban. These possible consequences are analyzed by means of the partial equilibrium model CAPRI. The underlying assumptions in the model cover supply models at NUTS2-level in the base years 2008 and 2012. Furthermore GAP rules after 2014,a Brexit-Scenario and a generel free trade agreement are assumed.
Contributions of EuroCARE
EuroCARE calculates 5 scenarios:
Scenario 1: Soybeans, soyoil and soycake are no longer allowed to be imported from US, Canada and Brasil into the EU
Scenario 2: Scenario 1 is extended insofar as soybeans and soyproducts at all are no longer allowed to be imported into the EU from third countries.
Scenario 3 and 4: The first two scenarios now cover corn and wheat and their products.
Scenario 5: In the last scenario soy, corn and wheat and their products are banned as imports to the Eu from third countries.
All scenarios have to be developed and tested, inlcuding changes in the code and debugging. The six outputfiles (Baseline + 5 Scenarios) are prepared in a way that they can be used further with standard software.