Impact Analysis of the EU Commission's Proposal under the Mid-Term Review of the Common Agricultural Policy using CAPSIM
Funding
EU-Commission, DG Agriculture, Contract no. 03.09.02 AGR 020554
Duration
October 2002– November 2002
Objectives
Impact analysis of the Mid 2002 EU Commission proposals for a “Mid Term Review of the Common Agricultural Policy”:
- Decoupling current support measures from production decisions (with some exceptions)
- Modulation (size dependent reduction) of support by on average 12%
- Specific measures related to selected markets (e.g. the additional drop of cereal prices)
Methodology
Important details of this CAPSIM application were:
- Decoupling has been modelled as a uniform area premium for eligible crops (all but permanent crops, fruit and vegetables)
- Cross compliance is assumed to prevent the conversion of grassland to arable land or fallow land.
- A crucial exogenous assumption was an increase of voluntary set aside by 500000 ha
- Specific measures on the rye and rice markets could not be modelled appropriately due to the level of aggragation
Results
Main results were:
- Moderate impacts on agricultural income due to compensating effects
- Decline in heavily supported sectors (durum wheat, beef)
Additional information:
- EuroCARE [Author: Witzke, H.P.] (2003): Impact Analysis of the European Commission’s proposal under the Mid-Term Review of the CAP using the CAPSIM model, Chapter VI, in: European Commission, DG Agriculture (eds.), Mid Term Review of the Common Agricultural Policy, July 2002 Proposals, Impact Analyses, Brussels, pp. 171-193. (pdf).
Last updated: Tuesday, 16-Sep-2008 10:36:49 CEST