Long run projection of selected agricultural variables for the European Environmental Agency (EEA)
Funding
European Environment Agency, Contract no. 3223/B2003.EEA.51630
Duration
December 2003 - November 2004
Objectives
For the 2005 “State of the Environment and Outlook Report” (SoEOR2005) of the European Environmental Agency (EEA) in Copenhagen, an outlook on agricultural variables was required with:
- Detailed coverage of products and activities;
- Projections up to 2020 (if possible 2030) for as many as possible European Countries;
- Acknowlegdement of relevant projections by other agencies involved in outlook work such as DG Agri, FAPRI, and others;
- Consideration of key driving forces including the CAP;
- Capability to undertake sensitivity analyses on key driving forces
Subtasks
Subtask 1: Stocktaking of expert information
Survey of outlook projections by other agencies (DG Agri, FAPRI, USDA, IFPRI, FAO)
- to obtain quantitative a priori information on key variables
- to assess the key driving forces and the applied methodology.
Main responsible: Dr. Arnim Kuhn
Subtask 2: Internally consistent trend forecasts
Trend projections have been applied as a default methodology for forecasting which do not require knowledge on exogenous variables or expert information. Rather than naively using independent trend forecasts for each time series, our trend estimates have imposed
- closed area and market balances;
- technological identities (production = area * yield) ;
- nutrient balances on energy and protein;
- balancing of milk fat and protein in the dairy industry.
The resulting (system) estimator has ignored exogenous developments (MTR!) but may be more consistent with technological constraints than expert forecasts.
Main responsible: Dr. Wolfgang Britz
Subtask 3: Integrated projection
To integrate possibly conflicting pieces of a priori information (different expert forecasts, trend forecasts) with a consideration of key driving forces an innovative outlook version of CAPSIM has been being developed.
- Expert information and trends are introduced as “supports”
- The objective function minimises the “distance” of simulation results and the supports.
- Selected parameters are permitted to change monotonically over time.
- The simulation is in essence a simultaneous estimation and a forecasting effort.
- Given the estimated parameters, counterfactual simulations have been be carried out (lower Euro/USD exchange rate, liberalisation in the livestock sector, best practice management of nutrients)
Main responsible: Dr. Peter Witzke
Subtask 4: Reporting
The simulation results on activity levels have been used to calculate environmentally relevant indicators. These are simplified projections of the CAPRI indicators on nutrient balances (N,P,K) and gaseous emissions. For the technical side of reporting (XML tables, graphics, maps) CAPRI technology has been be adapted for use in CAPSIM.
The final report gives detailed information on the methodology and an interpretation of the main quantitative simulation results in view of their environmental consequences. Two conference submissions resulting from the study are currently under review.
Responsible: Dr. Peter Witzke, Dr. Wolfgang Britz, Dr. Arnim Kuhn, Prof. Dr. T. Heckelei
Additional Information
- Witzke, H.P., Britz, W., Kuhn, A. (2004): Outlook on selected agricultural variables for the 2005 State of the Environment and the Outlook Report of the European Environmental Agency, EuroCARE Final Report
Last updated: Tuesday, 16-Sep-2008 10:36:45 CEST