All these models have been successfully applied in earlier policy processes (i.a., the CAFE programme). Their combined analytical capacity will be extended by a newly developed model for carbon sinks (EU-FASOM), which will then allow an integrated assessment of mitigation and enhanced carbon sinks across sectors and pollutants.

The current databases of all models will be updated to reflect latest perspectives on energy demand and agricultural production in the EU up to 2030 to be consistent with relevant energy, transport, and agricultural policies as well as with environmental legislation including commitments under the Kyoto Protocol and subsequent climate obligations.

Model descriptions of key processes will be improved to reflect new scientific findings, e.g., on health, ecosystems impacts, biodiversity and atmospheric chemistry and to reach a more accurate description of urban pollution levels. The technical and economic description of emission sources and abatement technologies for air pollutants and greenhouse gases will be updated and the analysis of non-technical measures will be introduced. Databases will be validated in consultations with stakeholders from Member States and industry.

With these improvements, the GAINS model framework will be used to for a comprehensive assessment of the costs, impacts and benefits of policies on air pollution and climate change. The project will develop a baseline projection of future emissions and air quality impacts that can be expected from a full implementation of the EU legislation in the coming years.

Against this baseline, it will explore policy options for cost-effective further improvements of air quality and greenhouse gas emissions and assess their costs, benefits, macro-economic impacts for all economic sectors and Member States.

Analysis will include all European countries and extend to the year 2030.

It will include emissions of air pollutants (SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3, PM) as well as the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs, HFC, SF6.

The analysis will pay specific attention to the physical and economic interactions between greenhouse gas mitigation and air pollution control.

It will address health impacts from fine particulate matter and ozone, vegetation damage from ozone, and acidification and eutrophication of ecosystems. New elements will compile specific estimates for the Natura2000 nature protection areas and develop indicators for threats to biodiversity.

The central analytical tool (i.e., the GAINS model) will be made available to the general public on the Internet, so that stakeholders and citizens can increase their confidence in the scientific and technical analyses by conducting their own assessments.

The project will produce an interim assessment in 2007/2008, and a final assessment in time for the review of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution and the analyses of the European Climate Change programme for the post-2012 period.

Tasks

The project is divided in ten tasks:

Task 1: Management and reporting to the EU

Task 2: Integrated assessment modelling:

Task 3: Ecosystems impact assessment

Task 4: Atmospheric dispersion

Task 5: Energy scenarios

Task 6: Transport scenarios

Task 7: Agricultural scenarios

Task 8: Benefit assessment

Task 9: Macro-economic impacts

Task 10: Dissemination

Tasks for EuroCARE

EuroCARE is mainly involved in task 7 for the baseline projections.

Agricultural projections require a continuous update of the database and baseline of the CAPRI modeling system to reflect ongoing changes in agricultural policies. Changes in the database will result both from revisions of current data, in particular on the New Member States of the EU, and partly from a further disaggregation which may be triggered by further EU enlargement (Balkan, Turkey).

The baseline needs to be adapted to the current status of CAP reforms, outcome of WTO negotiations and possible changes in long-term trends.

The database update involves a check of statistical raw data for completeness and consistency, and possible modifications of the raw data. The procedure starts from the level of national data and proceeds to the regional level. EuroCARE will be responsible for updates both of the database as well as of the baseline